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 Measuring price-deflation in a free market

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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:37 am

Static4367 wrote:
Conrad wrote:
Danny Shahar wrote:
Hmmm...it seems to me that the importance of having a CPI in the first place would be a little questionable in a market with a relatively stable money supply. In such a marketplace, we would expect prices to drop consistently over time as the total social product increased. The fluctuations in specific prices in such a marketplace would actually be able to perform the task that they're supposed to perform: communicating information about relative scarcity to market participants.

Yes! that's what I was sort of getting at with the 'automatic process' thing.

But then, if you're negotiating for a new wage, would you not take into account anticipated price-deflation (of those products you expect to buy) in your initial bidding? or is this an irrelevant factor because changes in price-levels are already factored in the amount of money available to e.g. the employer?


I find it very unlikely that anyone would use a deflating currency.

but in the 19th century they did

Quote:
In the absence of the government saying "A is money and B is not" people would switch to something with a stable or predictably inflating price. But, as I implied above, I don't think there is such a thing as a stable price in a world without people explicitly trying to stabilize prices.

though prices likely would be more stable exactly because nobody is trying to stabilize them

Quote:
Anything we might define as having a stable price is then by definition unstable relative to those things we define as unstable.

yes, ultimately it is a question of frame of reference and if you choose one that makes all other prices (expressed in that currency) very unstable, then you might want to choose another currency

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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:38 am

NonEntity wrote:
Go ask Alice... when she's ten feet tall.
Go ask Alice, I think she'll know...

Jefferson Airplane, Surrealistic Pillow wrote:


WHITE RABBIT


One pill makes you larger
And one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you
Don't do anything at all
Go ask Alice
When she's ten feet tall

And if you go chasing rabbits
And you know you're going to fall
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call
Call Alice
When she was just small

When men on the chessboard
Get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom
And your mind is moving slow
Go ask Alice
I think she'll know

When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen's "off with her head!"
Remember what the dormouse said:
"Feed your head
Feed your head
Feed your head"




- NonE flower

Say goodnight Gracie!

you're lucky it's a Sunday

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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:40 am

Danny Shahar wrote:
Conrad, changing price levels are already something that we have to deal with in our current economic circumstances.

yes. but my question is whether there is a diffence in dealing with such changes (other than jst difference between inflation and likely/possible deflation) between the current situation and a wholly free market

Quote:
The large difference would likely be that the stickiness of wages would favor wage earners with a consistently falling price level, instead of employers as is the case with a consistently rising price level. But if the wage earners' contributions to their companies were growing at the general rate of economic growth, then their constant wage level wouldn't be a problem. The changing price level would only become a problem with stagnant laborers or companies, and these would be the ones who we would hope would eventually fall by the wayside so as to free up resources for more productive uses.

yes

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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:47 am

Stewart wrote:
Conrad wrote:
That said, in a totally free market, there would be price-deflation (likely), and so it seems that companies and employees would still have to measure price-deflation for wage-negotiations and what not...


I'm not sure that's correct. As you surely know, the reason that a natural market experiences price deflation is because productivity increases over time, but the money supply is more-or-less fixed. If productivity was increasing, but employers were reducing their employee's paychecks accordingly, then who exactly would be benefiting from the increase in purchasing power?

depends on how much their productivity increases and the price-level, expressed in the currency they are getting paid, decreases. I mean, there is the same amount of money to go around for an increased number/quality of goods, so the employer will have less money if there were productivity increases elsewhere in the economy as well, no?

I mean, i think in the example I gave I said 2% deflation and a bit of increase in productivity so 1% decrease in pay

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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:52 am

Danny Shahar wrote:
Just seems like it would be a matter of negotiation and relative bargaining position just like everyone else. I suspect, though, that there would be a strong tendency to simply keep nominal wages stable and to treat the accumulated increase in real wages as a sort of automatic raise. After all, nobody likes to see their paycheck drop, even if they're actually making the same amount in terms of buying power.

yes, but marginal revenue, marginal costs and equal and what not.

also , people will be less displeased with a drop in nominal income in a deflationary environment than in an inflationary one, so I'm not sure what you say holds


Quote:
Or alternatively, we might see more prevalent profit-sharing schemes between corporations and employees; if firms saw their nominal profits decreasing, they might pass some of the losses in performance to their employees as part of a collective bargaining agreement. Or perhaps we would see an increase in stock-based compensation, which would similarly make employee benefits contingent on the company's performance.

good points, though employers might resist this if it doesnt benefit them

Quote:
I would be pretty surprised to see wages tied to a macro index, since the economy as a whole shouldn't be relevant to the bargaining between employees and employers

yeah, so the role of CPI would simply be much less important than it is these days

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Static4367



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:00 pm

Danny Shahar wrote:

Static, I'm not sure why you draw those conclusions about a "deflating" currency. With price deflation due to increasing overall production, each dollar would come to hold greater purchasing power the longer it was held. It's not clear why someone would want to switch from that sort of currency to a currency that they knew would be constantly debased (that is, a non-"deflationary" currency). (That is, unless the debasement were being done so that additional funds were allocated proportionately to currency-holders -- this would only seem possible with an electronic currency. But in that case, you'd end up with price certainty at the cost of asset certainty; you'd never know how much money you were actually going to have in the future). It would seem to me that if anything, people would rush into the "deflationary" currency, which would further increase the value of each unit of the currency and push prices in terms of that currency even further down!


The problem with deflation isn't with holding the currency but with investing it. Imagine if we used iPhones (a rapidly depreciating asset) as currency. You come to me and say, "Hey, I have this great investment idea. If you give me 100,000 iPhones today, then in 3 years I will give you 200,000 iPhones. That's a 100% return in three years." The problem is that in three years iPhones won't be worth anything so I would be crazy to invest in anything beyond very very short time frames. In a deflationary environment economic activity grinds to a halt precisely because everyone knows their money will be worth more in the future than anything they might spend it on or invest it in now.

It is also important to note that monetary expansion and inflation are not the same thing. If the economy is growing then the money supply also has to be growing in order to maintain the ratio of economic output to currency. It is only when the money supply grows faster than economic output that inflation occurs. So you don't ever want to use something with a fixed or very slowly growing supply as currency because that would result in deflation.
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NonEntity



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 3:35 am

Static4367 wrote:

It is also important to note that monetary expansion and inflation are not the same thing. If the economy is growing then the money supply also has to be growing in order to maintain the ratio of economic output to currency. It is only when the money supply grows faster than economic output that inflation occurs. So you don't ever want to use something with a fixed or very slowly growing supply as currency because that would result in deflation.


[sarcasm on]And you CERTAINLY wouldn't want people to be able to profit from the increase in the wealth of society! What a sin it would be for people to actually gain from an increase in productivity. Harrumph![sarcasm off]

- NonE

(How would all of the fat bankers and military contractors get by, after all? ... It boggles my mind when I think of the amount of wealth squandered in the military industrial complex, not to mention the rest of government.) Rolling Eyes
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Danny Shahar



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 3:57 am

That's an interesting point, Greg. I want to think about it some more; I'll try to get back to you soon.
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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:46 am

Static4367 wrote:


The problem with deflation isn't with holding the currency but with investing it. Imagine if we used iPhones (a rapidly depreciating asset) as currency. You come to me and say, "Hey, I have this great investment idea. If you give me 100,000 iPhones today, then in 3 years I will give you 200,000 iPhones. That's a 100% return in three years." The problem is that in three years iPhones won't be worth anything

I may just not be getting it, but wouldnt that be the case in a situation of INflation rather than DEflation? With deflation you could invest and get a zero percent monetary return but still a purchasing power gain.

Quote:
so I would be crazy to invest in anything beyond very very short time frames.

again, so you mean this would be the case in an inflationary environment?

Quote:
In a deflationary environment economic activity grinds to a halt precisely because everyone knows their money will be worth more in the future than anything they might spend it on or invest it in now.

same thing with computers nowadays no? nobody is buying computers because they will get cheaper all the time, and so the computer industry is dying down.

oh wait...

sorry. is this an inappriopriate comparison though? If so, why? how does the comparison not work?

Quote:
It is also important to note that monetary expansion and inflation are not the same thing. If the economy is growing then the money supply also has to be growing in order to maintain the ratio of economic output to currency.

why is maintaining that ratio important?

Quote:
It is only when the money supply grows faster than economic output that inflation occurs.

price-inflation, yes

Quote:
So you don't ever want to use something with a fixed or very slowly growing supply as currency because that would result in deflation.

yes, but as indicated above, I don';t quite understand what your arguments against deflation are yet.

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Danny Shahar



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 1:17 pm

Conrad, if I understand it correctly, I think that Static's point can be seen like this:

In a consistently deflationary economy, a person's purchasing power would increase over time simply for holding money. This would mean that individuals would have some incentive to hold their money instead of investing it. In an inflationary economy, on the other hand, people are constantly losing purchasing power by holding money. There is therefore an incentive to convert monetary instruments into non-monetary investments in order to protect oneself from inflation. Static's contention appears to be that people would hold money instead of investing in a deflationary economy, and this would hinder economic progress.

I'm not sure what I think of this. It seems to me that even though the price of a firm's products would be going down over time, the same would be true of the prices of its inputs. As long as outflows exceeded inflows, it seems like businesses could still be profitable. And profitable businesses would still be worth investing in.

But it also seems true that in a deflationary economy there is a positive incentive to hold money that does not exist in an inflationary economy. Adding time preference and risk premiums to this incentive would seemingly make it pretty difficult for any business venture to get off the ground.

And it also seems like we'd run into a serious public goods problem: everyone's money's purchasing power would rise from economic growth, and investments would be necessary to facilitate economic growth, but the investors would have no way of capturing the full value of their investments. Accordingly, there would be chronic underinvestment.

The thing is, though, there's an important sense in which printing new money is like...well I dunno...stealing or something. Right? I mean, who gets the new money? Who gets to decide how much new money is printed and what it gets used for? Why should they get to consume everyone else's products without contributing anything to the economy except printing a bunch of notes?
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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:21 pm

Danny Shahar wrote:
Conrad, if I understand it correctly, I think that Static's point can be seen like this:

how the hell did you find that in what Static said?! I mean, it makes sense, but there's no way even now that I'm able to find that in Static's words.

will respond content-wise later. busy day now

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NonEntity



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 4:14 pm

Danny Shahar wrote:

The thing is, though, there's an important sense in which printing new money is like...well I dunno...stealing or something. Right? I mean, who gets the new money? Who gets to decide how much new money is printed and what it gets used for? Why should they get to consume everyone else's products without contributing anything to the economy except printing a bunch of notes?


Indeed!

I don't see why people find this so hard to get. Fiat money is fraud, pure and simple. It is theft of value no different than any other form of counterfeit goods. If I water down a gallon of milk it is no longer a gallon of milk. It is a part of a gallon of milk and a bunch of water. Same with fiat money. It may look like milk and it may taste like milk, but if you keep on diluting it over time you will have the same situation as we have now with the value of a dollar. There's no beef. (reference to an old Wendy's commercial)

- NonE
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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 4:56 pm

Conrad wrote:
Danny Shahar wrote:
Conrad, if I understand it correctly, I think that Static's point can be seen like this:

how the hell did you find that in what Static said?! I mean, it makes sense, but there's no way even now that I'm able to find that in Static's words.


The short answer:

Because I'm a pro.

The slightly longer answer:

Static's substantive point was captured in this sentence:

Static4367 wrote:
In a deflationary environment economic activity grinds to a halt precisely because everyone knows their money will be worth more in the future than anything they might spend it on or invest it in now.


My elaboration was just an attempt to explain why I think he's at least somewhat correct about that.

As a side note: is it just me or are people feeling like this is rather Keynesian?
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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 5:00 pm

NonEntity wrote:
Danny Shahar wrote:

The thing is, though, there's an important sense in which printing new money is like...well I dunno...stealing or something. Right? I mean, who gets the new money? Who gets to decide how much new money is printed and what it gets used for? Why should they get to consume everyone else's products without contributing anything to the economy except printing a bunch of notes?


Indeed!

I don't see why people find this so hard to get. Fiat money is fraud, pure and simple. It is theft of value no different than any other form of counterfeit goods.

okay, not sure if this works, but lemme try; you say 'fiat money is theft of value'

how would you distinguish this situation from the following: you are the first person to produce product X and you market it well. Your company has a certain value because of it. Now I come up with product x+ and a lot of your consumers walk over to my company, so your company's value is now less, and mine is more.
what is the difference between the theft of value in the fiat money case (assuming that people are aware that not all of the notes are backed by e.g. gold) and the 'theft' of value in the company case.

Discuss.

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PostSubject: Re: Measuring price-deflation in a free market   Sun Jun 14, 2009 5:43 pm

All value is subjective. Something is only worth what someone else will pay for it. There is no such thing as "inherent value."

Everything is constantly changing relative to everything else. This is simple reality. The universe is not static.

A piece of paper is worth what someone will pay for it.

A warehouse receipt is only a representation of something else, hence the value is in the item represented, not the paper making up the warehouse receipt.

Your company is only worth what the market (individual people) will pay for it. When a newer, better, cheaper item comes on the market, the value of your company will drop. Your company has no "inherent" value, no guaranteed value. It only has value if others are willing to buy it, and only to the level (price) that they determine.

Gold only has what value it has because throughout history it has show itself to be particularly rare and hard to mine as well as having durability. It does not rust or rot or dissolve nor evaporate nor spoil. If something came along and changed this, a person figured out how to make gold from lead, then it's value would plummet. So far history has shown people that gold is one of the very most stable forms of asset to own. That is why it has value. That can change, but it is not likely to. Unlike your company.

A piece of paper, the Zimbabwe dollar, for example, is a bit less stable. Just like your company in the face of a dynamic marketplace filled with entrepreuers.

If a piece of paper represents something else, a share in your company, a given quantity of gold, a promise made by a politician, then you must make a judgement as to the future probablity of claiming value on that something else.

Caveat emptor. If I take pieces of paper from someone who has a proven track record of creating pieces of paper with NO backing whatsoever other than the ignorance of other people's willingness to take them, then I am a fool.

The fact that people with guns DEMAND that I use these pieces of paper (legal tender laws) is a sticky moral question. Do I take them and pawn them off on others all the while KNOWING that they are worthless? Does the fact that someone is holding a gun to my head absolve me of my part in this crime? That is another question, not one of economics.

- NonE
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