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 Thinking of Stefan

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Conrad



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PostSubject: Thinking of Stefan   Fri Feb 06, 2009 1:05 pm

In my classes this week I thought about Stefan a couple of times

1. two guys in a class tend to start sentences with 'I feel...', so like 'I feel that Menger doesn't realize what kind of epistemological problems are involved'
And every time in my head I involuntarily go 'That's not a feeling!'

2. One of the great great things about this grad programme is the criticism. Everything and everybody gets criticised and analysed and you learn an awful lot from that. and I was thinking; Stefan simply wouldn't last a semester in a programme like this. Suppose he gives a presentation on UPB, then he will be criticised from all sort of perspectives in the discussion afterwards and he simply wouldnt be able to deal with this, to talk his way out of it. He totally depends on the controlled environment he has created with FDR.

3. Stefan has very strong opinions about such diverse topics as ethics, science, epistemology, free will, mathematics (his empiricist interpretation) etc. and he and the hard-core FDR'ers (perhaps with the exception of the free will debate) ridicule their opponents and are utterly convinced that they simply have the correct answers in all these fields and that their opponents or criticasters are simply dumb or irrationally defensive. But dude, the most brilliant minds of all time have analysed, thought through, argued for or against virtually all possible positions in these discussions and Stefan c.s. simply have no idea about this. I mean, Stef's philosophy of science is a position that I think literally not a single philosopher of science still takes seriously after the work of Polanyi, Kuhn, Quine etc. But Stefan is completely unaware of this whole development, of all the (I think definitive) arguments against his crude proto-positivism. but he is so certain about his position, so friggin' arrogant.
And tey have their little simplistic, sophistic 'self-detonating argument!' techniques and they refuse to think beyond their trickery. And when confronted with the fact that the most brilliant minds have thought about these things, that so many books and articles have been written about it, they would likely just dismiss it by saying 'Ha! A bunch of academics don't agree? We'll take that as a badge of honor'


They're really such a sad little bunch
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Stewart



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Fri Feb 06, 2009 1:22 pm

I get the impression, whenever I read their arrogant rants, that they believe everyone who disagrees with them must actually be stupid. I suppose there is no worse approach to philosophy of any kind than to assume that your intellectual opponents are simply morons.

Awhile back, Russ Roberts interviewed Steve Fazzari, a Keynesian economist, on his podcast EconTalk. It's a great interview, not just because Roberts is such an engaging interviewer, but also because Fazzari is remarkably smart. I was a little surprised at how impossible it was for me to always work out what was incorrect about his models.

The positions that the FDR group refute are not articulated by the Fazzaris of the world. They are barely articulated at all. Molyneux creates nonsensical caricatures of whomever he disagrees with. And like you pointed out, those caricatures are often a century or more out of date.
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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Fri Feb 06, 2009 1:31 pm

Stewart wrote:
I get the impression, whenever I read their arrogant rants, that they believe everyone who disagrees with them must actually be stupid. I suppose there is no worse approach to philosophy of any kind than to assume that your intellectual opponents are simply morons.

Awhile back, Russ Roberts interviewed Steve Fazzari, a Keynesian economist, on his podcast EconTalk. It's a great interview, not just because Roberts is such an engaging interviewer, but also because Fazzari is remarkably smart. I was a little surprised at how impossible it was for me to always work out what was incorrect about his models.

I also notice this in and outside of class: the positions of my opponents tend to be very well thought out. you might sort of have an immediate response to a position and then you confidently assert it thinking 'ha! I got you there' but then they actually reply to that point in detail and you realize 'damn, things weren't as simple as I thought they were, and this guy actually thought about things' and often people criticise my positions and I am not instantly or at times not at all able to come up with an adequate reply. One problem though is the incommensurability at play; an Austrian and a Keynesian arguing will talk past each other at least to some extent and it's hard to establish at least some common ground or to figure out the framework, the paradigm through which the other is thinking.

Quote:
The positions that the FDR group refute are not articulated by the Fazzaris of the world. They are barely articulated at all. Molyneux creates nonsensical caricatures of whomever he disagrees with. And like you pointed out, those caricatures are often a century or more out of date.

totally: Stefan is the King of Strawmen, and he is either completely unaware of an intelligent articulation of and argument for his opponent's position and/or he he just intentionally mischaracterizes it. And because he has a way with words and has a history as a debater in university and knows all the tricks, he often can get away with it, not necessarily vis-a-vis his opponent but at least vis-a-vis the people watching the debate.
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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Fri Feb 06, 2009 1:48 pm

An analogy: from what I gathered the Republicans in their campaigning and in their propagandizing used a remarkably cynical technique; they would knowingly spread lies and false information about their projects, about their opponents and so on, and when journalists or others would call them on these lies and so on they would simply not care; they don't care about truth or about being found out by journalists, intellectual or political opponents etc. because the revelation that what they said were lies would only reach a very small part of the population while their lies would reach vastly more people. So they didn't mind being found out, their lies being exposed because their lies got the job done, they would convince enough people for them to stay in power and that is all that mattered.

that's a deeply deeply cynical approach, but I do see some aspects of that in Stefan as well: in a sense it doesn't matter for him when he gets exposed re certain points on the board or in discussions by intellectual opponents. He will ban or ridicule his opponents, for sure, but he doesnt mind being found out much because by that time his lies will have done the trick of convincing enough of his followers of the truth of his position or of the nasty nature of his opponents. he truly does not care about truth.
That too is deeply deeply cynical
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Dylboz



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Fri Feb 06, 2009 3:29 pm

He does that to set an example of what happens to dissenters. I think he is blatant about it when he is caught in a lie in order to make it clear that you don't call him on his dishonesty or contradictions. The more glaringly obvious the error on his part, the more effective it is when he lambastes and ultimately ex-communicates the messenger. That's how they learn how to behave around the Great One.

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lordmetroid



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Fri Feb 06, 2009 6:52 pm

Stewart wrote:
I get the impression, whenever I read their arrogant rants, that they believe everyone who disagrees with them must actually be stupid. I suppose there is no worse approach to philosophy of any kind than to assume that your intellectual opponents are simply morons.

Awhile back, Russ Roberts interviewed Steve Fazzari, a Keynesian economist, on his podcast EconTalk. It's a great interview, not just because Roberts is such an engaging interviewer, but also because Fazzari is remarkably smart. I was a little surprised at how impossible it was for me to always work out what was incorrect about his models.

The positions that the FDR group refute are not articulated by the Fazzaris of the world. They are barely articulated at all. Molyneux creates nonsensical caricatures of whomever he disagrees with. And like you pointed out, those caricatures are often a century or more out of date.


I downloaded and listened to this podcast just recently(on your recommendation above).

Keynesian economics seem to have valid points but I find it oversee a lot of broken windows.
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Static4367



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:24 am

Stewart wrote:
I get the impression, whenever I read their arrogant rants, that they believe everyone who disagrees with them must actually be stupid. I suppose there is no worse approach to philosophy of any kind than to assume that your intellectual opponents are simply morons.

Awhile back, Russ Roberts interviewed Steve Fazzari, a Keynesian economist, on his podcast EconTalk. It's a great interview, not just because Roberts is such an engaging interviewer, but also because Fazzari is remarkably smart. I was a little surprised at how impossible it was for me to always work out what was incorrect about his models.

The positions that the FDR group refute are not articulated by the Fazzaris of the world. They are barely articulated at all. Molyneux creates nonsensical caricatures of whomever he disagrees with. And like you pointed out, those caricatures are often a century or more out of date.


Stewart,
I just listened to this podcast and the error in Fazzari's models seems pretty clear, but I would appreciate your response to be sure I am not missing a more subtle point.

Roberts and Fazzari repeatedly use the example of a family that stops eating out to save money. Fazzari claims that income is destroyed but paradoxically savings is not increased. When the family stops eating out they increase their savings but this savings comes at the expense of the incomes/profits of the restaurant and therefore the savings of the restaurant workers/owners.

I agree with him that savings is not actually increased, but I disagree that income is destroyed assuming the savings is kept in the market. The savings, assuming it is not kept in cash under a mattress, could either be loaned to another party for their consumption or invested in future production. In the former case current consumption is increased by the party receiving the loan in the same amount that the reduced income to restaurant decreases current consumption. In the latter case current investment is increased, which as Roberts points out is just another form of spending. The firm receiving the investment must hire labor and/or capital in the amount of the investment and again this money eventually becomes someones income and thereby consumption funding.

This is the same fallacy that Keynesians promulgate when speaking about the multiplier effect of spending while ignoring the negative multiplier effects of taxation. The end result of any transactions that does not remove resources from the market is a wash. In order for the result to be anything else you have to presume biases in preferences (ie the researcher who the investment money flows to prefers less consumption than the restaurant workers the spending flows away from).

The important issue, which the Keynesians ignore completely, is efficient allocation of resources. If spending money on a restaurant meal is less desirable than the return on savings/investment, then buying that meal is a sub-optimal outcome; it leads to net less utility in market. Fazzari is correct that a sudden drop in spending creates unemployment which does in fact remove resources from the market, but that labor is unemployed precisely because its current employment was inefficient. To try to prevent the friction of creative destruction is to prevent recovery.

Am I completely missing his argument?
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Stewart



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Tue Feb 10, 2009 8:22 am

I think you've pointed out one of the best arguments that Roberts made against Farrazi in the podcast. He hesitated for a moment, and then suggested that Farrazi's argument meant that whether people saved or invested didn't make a difference. He didn't really press the issue, though.

I find it confusing for two reasons. The first is that, intuitively and on a personal scale, it seems to me that savings should have a positive, if deferred, effect. Your interpretation of Farrazi's argument, if correct, suggests that saving and investment just moves money around in the current economy.

The second is that Farrazi does offer a refutation. He asks what would happen if, absurdly, everyone saved instead of spent. I think I understand why that simply wouldn't ever happen (because investment money would become absurdly cheap in such a situation, promoting borrowing and consumption) but it does suggest that there is some qualitative difference between spending and savings.
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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Tue Feb 10, 2009 10:23 am

Stewart wrote:
I think you've pointed out one of the best arguments that Roberts made against Farrazi in the podcast. He hesitated for a moment, and then suggested that Farrazi's argument meant that whether people saved or invested didn't make a difference. He didn't really press the issue, though.

I find it confusing for two reasons. The first is that, intuitively and on a personal scale, it seems to me that savings should have a positive, if deferred, effect. Your interpretation of Farrazi's argument, if correct, suggests that saving and investment just moves money around in the current economy.

The second is that Farrazi does offer a refutation. He asks what would happen if, absurdly, everyone saved instead of spent.

a great job increase in the higher stages of the production process
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Stewart



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Tue Feb 10, 2009 10:32 am

I don't understand what your post means, Conrad. Therefore it must be wrong.
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Conrad



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Tue Feb 10, 2009 10:46 am

if there are more savings then there will be more investments, and thus a lengthening and widening of the structure of production and thus more jobs in the higher order stages of production (and fewer jobs in those stages closest to consumption)
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NonEntity



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:37 am

Stewart wrote:
I don't understand what your post means, Conrad. Therefore it must be wrong.


!!!!! lol!

- NonE
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Danny Shahar



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Tue Feb 10, 2009 2:54 pm

Doesn't it depend on what we mean by "saving"? One of my economics professors once insisted that "saving" means putting money in the bank (which, I argued, is more like "loaning" than "saving," but whatever). "Saving" as in keeping money in one's own posession, on the other hand, was now "hoarding."

The difference is important. If everyone "saved" in my professor's sense, and didn't spend, it wouldn't be profitable for banks to continue to exist. They wouldn't be able to generate any profit from lending, because who would take out money if not to spend? And without that profit, why offer an interest rate on deposits? If everyone "saved" and didn't spend, it would soon become impossible to "save" at all. Such a system would self-detonate.

If, however, we take saving to mean "hoarding," then things are different. If everyone "hoarded" and didn't spend, there would simply be no trade. In such a case, people would just have to sustain themselves without the benefits afforded by the division of labor.
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Static4367



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:48 pm

Stewart wrote:
I think you've pointed out one of the best arguments that Roberts made against Farrazi in the podcast. He hesitated for a moment, and then suggested that Farrazi's argument meant that whether people saved or invested didn't make a difference. He didn't really press the issue, though.


The point as I remember it (though we may be referring to different statements) is that savings implies investment and that investment is not qualitatively different from consumption spending. In fact the distinction between the two is much more opaque than commonly acknowledged. If my company buys me a computer it is investment, but if I buy myself a computer it is consumption. Why is this the case? Because economists arbitrarily decided that home PCs are more likely to be used for leisure than production. But what if I am now willing to work a 10 more hours a week because my home pc allows me to accomplish personal tasks more efficiently. Then the home pc really achieved an investment purpose.

Stewart wrote:

I find it confusing for two reasons. The first is that, intuitively and on a personal scale, it seems to me that savings should have a positive, if deferred, effect. Your interpretation of Farrazi's argument, if correct, suggests that saving and investment just moves money around in the current economy.


My claim, and I think Roberts' claim, is that savings doesn't remove money (liquidity, capital, velocity) from the economy as Fazzari suggests. Savings directs money towards 'investment' but the difference between investment and (consumption) spending is largely semantic (as above). Both require that you spend money. Both require that you employ labor and capital. Both produce a valued output. The only qualitative difference is what is done with the output. When the output is consumed it is destroyed whereas when the output is the product of 'investment' it is then used to more efficiently produce other goods. I think this is the missing piece in your intuition that savings should have a positive effect. Savings and investment is in a sense superior to consumption spending because it builds on itself (while still employing labor and capital thereby providing income).

Stewart wrote:

The second is that Farrazi does offer a refutation. He asks what would happen if, absurdly, everyone saved instead of spent. I think I understand why that simply wouldn't ever happen (because investment money would become absurdly cheap in such a situation, promoting borrowing and consumption) but it does suggest that there is some qualitative difference between spending and savings.


In this example I think Fazzari is conflating the short term impact with the long term impact. Any sudden shift in preferences would require a massive redistribution of resources and dramatic friction in the market. That would lead to very negative short term effects (and the 'short term' might be prolonged if the friction is significant enough).

But to consider the long term impact we have to compare the two post-adjustment worlds. World A is the US in 2007: spending and consumption are high, savings is relatively low, capital stock is depleting resulting in diminishing future productive capacity. World B is China in 2007: spending is low, savings is high, capital stock is growing as is future productive capacity. China is in a bit of a conundrum now because they steered that investment towards the export market, which has collapsed, but assume they had not. Assume instead that investment was steered more towards R&D. The high level of investment would have led to more productivity, more capital, better technology etc. Assuming these people do not value the consumption goods that they are giving up then this is a positive trade. They are simply trading stuff now for more rapid access to better stuff in the future.

Fazzari's argument relies on increased savings leading to decreased employment but in the hypothetical above that is not the case. The incentive to own a share of the growing capital stock (through investment funds) is sufficient to encourage workers to continue working and continue investing. So long as investment continues then employers have access to increasing amounts of cheap investment capital which allow them to continue employing workers in investment related activities.

Of course if the consumption/investment balance shifts dramatically in one direction then pricing of consumption goods may be distorted making it difficult to direct investment capital efficiently, but that is an unreasonably extreme case. Marginal shifts in one way or the other do not damage the economy so long as they efficiently represent preferences of market participants.
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Tuesday



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PostSubject: Re: Thinking of Stefan   Sun Feb 15, 2009 7:12 pm

I read this yesterday and it kind of reminded me of my interactions with Stefan and his cohort.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/mozart.html
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